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Littera Scripta

ISSN (online): 1805-9112

Research ArticleOpen access

Development of Wheat Prices and the Development of Selected Wheat-Based Products in the Czech Republic

Natálie Pýchová1*, Viera Mokrišová2

  1. Institute of Technology and Business, School of Expertness and Valuation, České Budějovice, Czechia
  2. Institute of Technology and Business in Prešov, Faculty of Economics, Prešov, Slovakia

* Corresponding author: 31322@mail.vstecb.cz

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term price development of selected types of wheat and selected wheat products in the Czech Republic and to predict their future development. To achieve this goal, content analysis of secondary data and time series analysis were used, including basic measures of dynamics and the ARIMA model for forecasting prices twelve months in advance. The results showed that the prices of wheat and wheat products fluctuated during periods but grew in the long term. The ARIMA model indicated a slightly downward trend in future prices for both types of wheat. The research provided a holistic overview of the price development of a key agricultural commodity and its processed range, and can thus contribute to better economic decision-making in the agricultural and food sectors. The study is limited by its dependence on a single source data, the absent seasonal adjustment, and the model's sensitivity to market shocks, creating room for expanding the analysis.

Keywords:Agricultural commoditiescereal priceswheat marketprice developmenttime series analysisARIMACzech Republic

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