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ISSN (online): 1805-9112

Research ArticleOpen access

Historical Analysis and Forecasting of Gold Price as an Economic Indicator

Amine Sabek1*, Marek Nagy2iD

  1. University of Tamanghasset, Tamanghasset, Algeria
  2. University of Žilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communication, Žilina, Slovakia

* Corresponding author: sabek.amine@univ-tam.dz

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyse the gold price development during the period 2020–2024 and subsequently to forecast the gold price development for the period 2025–2030. To achieve this objective, the content analysis and data description method was used to process historical data, and the Exponential Smoothing forecasting model was used to estimate future trends. The analysis of historical data was conducted on the basis of daily closing prices of gold, while the predictions relied on trend and seasonal components of time series. The results showed that in 2020– 2024, the gold price was affected by major global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies. The most notable rise occurred in 2020, when the price peaked at USD 2,075 per troy ounce. The forecast for 2025–2030 indicated a continuous rise in the price of gold, which is expected to reach approximately USD 5,500 by the end of 2030. This growth reflects anticipated global economic conditions, in particular rising inflation and the demand for gold as a safe-haven investment. Although the Exponential Smoothing model provided accurate results, the research remains limited by its dependence on historical data, which cannot account for unexpected future events such as geopolitical changes or technological innovations. Nonetheless, the findings of this study offer valuable information for investors and analysts that can be further used to better understand the gold market's dynamics and to formulate long-term investment strategies.

Keywords:gold price evolutionforecastinvestment strategytime serieseconomic analysisExponential Smoothing modelmarket volatility

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