VSTE
Littera Scripta

ISSN (online): 1805-9112

Open access

Oil price trends and their prediction using the ARIMA model

Jakub Horák1*iD, Aneta Soběslavská2

  1. Institute of Technology and Business in Prešov, Department of Economics, Management and Marketing, Prešov, Slovakia
  2. Institute of Technology and Business, School of Expertness and Valuation, České Budějovice, Czechia

* Corresponding author: horak@vste.sk

Abstract

The price of oil is an extremely volatile commodity, the prediction of which is complex, but crucial for the stability of the global economy and the energy market. The aim of this work was to evaluate the development of the oil price over the past 25 years and to create a prediction model for estimating its price until 2030. For this purpose, the ARIMA method was used, applied to the time series of WTI oil prices obtained from the EIA database. Statistical tests of stationarity, autocorrelation and subsequent differentiation of the data were performed to correctly set the model. The result was a successful prediction of the future price development of oil with an expected range of 60–90 USD per barrel, with the ARIMA (2,1,1) model demonstrating a good ability to capture both historical trends and cyclical fluctuations. The contribution of the work was the creation of a reliable tool for economic planning in the energy sector. The research is limited by the fact that it does not take into account all external factors, such as geopolitical events or technological progress.

Keywords:PredictionoilARIMA methoddata stationarityvolatilityeconomicsenergy

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